2010 West Coast Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the 10th year in a row, the Gonzaga Bulldogs won the West Coast Conference regular-season title, as they finished 12-2 within the league. The Bulldogs are out to repeat in this tournament after winning the 2009 event, which was held at a neutral site for the first time ever. Orleans Arena in Las Vegas will once again serve as host to the 24th-annual WCC Tournament, an eight-team event that gets underway on Friday.

The Saint Mary's Gaels ended up 11-3 and earned the second seed, while the University of Portland Pilots are locked in as the third seed courtesy of their 10-4 league mark. San Francisco and Loyola Marymount both finished 7-7, with the Dons grabbing the fourth seed and the Lions the fifth. Santa Clara, San Diego and Pepperdine all had 3-11 marks and the Toreros ended up as the sixth seed, the Broncos seventh and the Waves at eight. The winner of this event earns an automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament.

The WCC Tournament gets started on Friday with the fifth-seeded Loyola Marymount Lions facing the eighth-seeded Pepperdine Waves. The Lions got healthy and played well down the stretch, winning five of their last seven games, including an upset of Gonzaga. The team's 16 overall wins are its most since capturing 18 in 1995-96. Loyola has won this event three times, with the last coming in 1990. As for the Waves, they started conference play with three straight wins before losing their last 11 contests. Pepperdine however, does own a 27-19 all-time mark in this event and that includes three titles.

The first round will conclude on Friday with sixth-seeded San Diego clashing with seventh-seeded Santa Clara. The Toreros are the only team, aside from Gonzaga, to win this event in the last 11 years, capturing titles in 2003 and 2008. San Diego ended a six-game slide with a win over Pepperdine in its finale and split two meetings with Santa Clara. Speaking of the Broncos, they carry a three-game losing skid into the postseason. Santa Clara owns a 24-21 record in this tourney and won its last title in 1993.

The quarterfinals will begin on Saturday and fourth-seeded San Francisco will await the winner of the Loyola Marymount/Pepperdine matchup. The Dons tied Loyola Marymount at 7-7, but swept the Lions during the regular season, giving them the fourth seed and a first-round bye. San Francisco, which knocked off Gonzaga in late January, is in search of its first tourney title since 1998.

In the second quarterfinal round game, the third-seeded Pilots will tussle with the survivor of the San Diego/Santa Clara pairing. Portland tied the school record of 10 WCC victories set during the 1994-95 season, as it won five of its last six bouts. The Pilots, who earned their first national ranking in 50 years earlier on in the campaign, are just 8-21 all-time in this event.

The top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs will make their much anticipated debut when they take the floor in the first game of the semifinal round on Sunday. Gonzaga has won 12 of the past 13 WCC regular-season titles, including the last 10. The Bulldogs are now tied with UNLV (1983-92 Big West) and Connecticut (1951-60 Yankee Conference) for the second-longest conference regular season title winning streak in NCAA history. Gonzaga has won this tourney a record 10 times and they are 35-13 all-time in the event. The Bulldogs have made 12 straight championship game appearances, winning the title nine of those times, including an 83-58 trouncing of Saint Mary's last year.

The second-seeded Gaels earned a bye into the semifinals and will need just one win to reach their second straight title game. Despite three championship game appearances in the last six years, the Gaels have won just one title and that came in 1997. The team is paced by Omar Samhan, the leading scorer (21.5 ppg) and rebounder (11.1 rpg) in the conference.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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