Blue Jays aim to extend series win streak over Orioles

Baseball Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays may have had their share of trouble against the top teams in the American League's East Division, but they sure know how to handle the Baltimore Orioles.

The Blue Jays will be seeking to extend a nine-game winning streak over Baltimore when these two AL East foes play the first of three consecutive meetings from the Rogers Centre this evening.

Toronto has swept a trio of three-game sets from the lowly Orioles this season, one of which took place at the Rogers Centre from May 28-30. The Blue Jays have also won eight straight and 13 of their 14 matchups with Baltimore as the home team.

The Jays haven't fared nearly as well against the other AL East inhabitants, having gone a combined 8-16 versus the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.

Toronto did acquit itself fairly well in its most recent series, however, splitting four bouts on the road with struggling Detroit over the weekend. The Blue Jays nearly came through with a series win, but the Tigers rallied for four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to pull out a 6-5 victory in Sunday's finale of a doubleheader.

The Blue Jays posted a 5-3 win in the opener of the twinbill, with Lyle Overbay's tie-breaking two-run homer off Tigers closer Jose Valverde in the top of the ninth providing the difference.

Jose Molina had a two-run homer earlier in the game for Toronto, while Vernon Wells belted a solo shot and finished 2-for-4 with two runs scored. Reliever Scott Downs (4-5) was awarded the win after pitching out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the bottom of the eighth, with Kevin Gregg tossing a 1-2-3 ninth to notch his 23rd save.

Toronto's bullpen couldn't get the job done in the nightcap, however, as Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor were tagged for four runs in the eighth as Detroit rallied from a 4-2 deficit. Frasor (3-3) took the loss after allowing a pair of two-run doubles in the frame, including Ryan Raburn's go-ahead shot with one out.

Jays starter Jesse Litsch was in line for the win after holding the Tigers to two runs over the first 5 1/3 innings. Jose Bautista hit his major league- leading 27th homer of the season in the loss, while Dewayne Wise finished 3- for-4 with a solo blast and knocked in two runs for Toronto.

The Blue Jays will attempt to bounce back tonight behind Brandon Morrow, with the young right-hander hoping to duplicate a quality performance during his last time out. The converted reliever beat the Orioles in Baltimore back on July 17, yielding just two runs on five hits and striking out eight batters over seven innings.

Morrow has not pitched since that game, with Toronto skipping his next turn in order to limit his workload for the year. The former first-round pick has logged a career-high 107 innings thus far and has compiled a 6-6 record with a 4.71 earned run average in 19 starts, while striking out an impressive 119 batters.

The offseason acquisition, who turns 26 years old today, has done his best work at the Rogers Centre, having recorded a 5-1 mark with a 3.27 ERA in nine home starts.

Morrow's win over the Orioles earlier this month was his only decision in nine career appearances, two of which have been starts, against Baltimore. He sports a 3.26 ERA through 19 1/3 innings over those outings.

Baltimore registered the worst overall record in baseball prior to the All- Star break and hasn't shown any improvement so far in the second half. The Orioles have dropped eight of 10 games since the hiatus and enter tonight's tilt off back-to-back home setbacks to Minnesota on Saturday and Sunday.

Orioles pitching was hit hard in yesterday's 10-4 defeat, with the Twins banging out 19 hits and swatting four homers in the rout. Baltimore starter Jake Arrieta (3-3) struggled badly during his four-inning stint, with the rookie tagged for five runs on seven hits and walking four batters.

"It's pretty embarrassing to go out there and not be able to give your team a quality start," said Arrieta. "I prepare myself too well to allow these kind of things to happen."

Baltimore will be hoping for a better showing out of tonight's starter, Brad Bergesen, but may have to keep its fingers crossed considering how he's pitched as of late. The sophomore hurler has lost four consecutive starts and surrendered four or more runs in four of his past five assignments, producing a poor 6.52 ERA over that stretch.

In reality, this entire season has been a struggle for Bergesen, who brings a 3-8 record and 6.51 overall ERA into tonight's matchup. Opposing hitters are batting a robust .327 off of him for the year.

Bergesen did strike out seven batters over 5 1/3 innings in his last mound trip, but was still reached for five runs and nine hits in a loss to Tampa Bay this past Wednesday. That effort followed a 4-2 defeat to the Blue Jays on July 21 in which he permitted all four runs while lasting six frames.

The 24-year-old is 1-1 over four career starts against Toronto, but has allowed a total of nine runs in a combined 10 2/3 innings during his two previous encounters with the Blue Jays this season.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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