Carbo is fall guy for Gainey's disappointing Habs

Hockey Betting Lines

03/10/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year was supposed to be one of celebration for the Montreal Canadiens franchise. Instead, the Habs' 100th season has been one filled with disappointments, the latest coming in the form of a head coach firing.

Guy Carbonneau was relieved of his coaching duties on Monday with just 16 regular season games left for Montreal. It seems like a harsh move considering the Canadiens were the fifth seed in the East at the time of the firing, but Montreal has a tenuous hold on that spot at best, thanks to the conference's tight race for the playoffs.

Carbonneau's Canadiens were just one year removed from a first-place finish in the conference during the 2007-08 season before suffering a disappointing five-game series loss to Philadelphia in the second round. He was also last year's runner-up for the Jack Adams Trophy, which is given annually to the league's best coach.

General manager Bob Gainey, a friend and former teammate of Carbonneau's in Montreal, made the decision to change coaches and, not surprisingly, he chose himself to handle bench duties for the remainder of the season. This marks the second time in Gainey's nearly six years as Montreal GM that he has fired a coach and taken over on an interim basis.

The last time Gainey used this strategy was in the middle of the 2005-06 campaign when he fired Claude Julien. Interestingly enough, Julien, who is currently enjoying immense success as head coach of the Eastern Conference- leading Boston Bruins, was also replaced by another GM a year later when Devils front office whiz Lou Lamoriello fired him and became the interim head coach.

Gainey is just one of many general managers with too much power and not enough accountability. Certainly, he had cause for firing Carbonneau, but the main reasons for Montreal's struggles this year can be traced back to moves the GM made.

First and foremost, it was Gainey's idea to anoint Carey Price as his team's No. 1 goaltender at the not-yet-ripe age of 20 years old, when he traded the club's former top goaltender Cristobal Huet at the 2007-08 deadline. The Habs would have lost Huet to free agency after the season anyway, but the move had a whiff of arrogance since Montreal was the No. 1 seed in the East at the time of the trade and Huet had been a big reason for Montreal's success up to that point.

Price went on to struggle in his first NHL postseason, going 5-6 with a 2.78 GAA and .901 save percentage. The rookie goaltender appeared lost at times, specifically in the series against Philadelphia when he let up a handful of soft goals. Price's growing pains have continued into this season, and Montreal has increasingly turned to Jaroslav Halak as the starting goaltender.

Not to say that Price won't at some point be a great goaltender for Montreal, but Gainey certainly made a blunder in deciding the young netminder's time was now.

Another problem for the Habs this year has been the decreased production of Alex Kovalev, who had a career renaissance with an 84-point season a year ago only to have just 47 points through 64 games this year. Kovalev's lack of scoring became such an issue that Gainey decided to order his star player to stay home in Montreal while his team was out on the road playing the final two games of a road trip.

To say that this scenario was predictable would be an understatement, considering Kovalev's history of taking years off. Of course, the 2007-08 campaign happened to be the final year of the Russian winger's contract. After Gainey opted to sign Kovalev, who is now 36 years of age, to a three-year, $13.5 million deal.

To be fair to Gainey, allowing Kovalev to walk to another team would have been an extremely unpopular decision in Montreal, where the hockey-crazed fan base refers to Kovalev as L'Artiste (The Artist) due to his world-class stickhandling skills.

Still, Gainey's job is to make difficult decisions such as allowing a beloved player to test free agency if it is the best plan for a team's future.

This is still not enough to excuse Carbonneau for his erratic approach to coaching this season. The former Canadiens captain shuffled his lines so frequently that his players couldn't have helped but feel confused. Also, The constant reordering invariably caused some players to suffer a loss of confidence in their own play.

Essentially, what Gainey is out to prove is that the players he has accumulated in service of the Canadiens are better than Carbonneau has made them look this season. That is ultimately the best way Gainey can prove he still deserves to be the general manager of the most storied franchise in NHL history.

Gainey had a telling moment Monday at the press conference to announce the coaching change. He said, "I can't say there could be anybody who follows our team who hasn't had this [firing] in their mind at some point in the last month."

That's true, in a town where hockey is king, Carbonneau's demise was likely predicted by many folks. In the end, however, the decision was made by Gainey, and now that he's added the title of head coach to his resume once again, it's he who bears the burden of proof in making the case for his own job.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.