Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies have been inconsistent on offense all year, and it was never more evident than during Monday's doubleheader versus the Florida Marlins. That still didn't stop the club from pulling within a half-game of first place in the National League East.
The Phillies will try to grab sole possession of first place for the first time since late May as Joe Blanton aims to extend an eight-start unbeaten streak in tonight's third contest of a four-game series versus the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia entered Monday's twinbill one game back of the front-running Braves for the NL East's top spot and had the opportunity to move ahead of Atlanta after it lost to the Pirates yesterday.
However, the Phillies were out hit 13-3 in dropping the first game, 7-1, before responding with a 7-4 triumph in the nightcap.
Florida's Adalberto Mendez pitched six shutout innings in his MLB debut in the first game, though he did leave with a strained right quad suffered while running to first in the seventh. However, Philadelphia managed just Jayson Werth's RBI single off the rookie.
Marlins rookie Mike Stanton entered the series in a 3-for-45 slump, but homered in both contests and had four hits in nine at-bats. His solo homer in the second inning of the nightcap was one of three homers allowed by Phils starter Roy Oswalt, who also yielded home-run balls to Hanley Ramirez and Cameron Maybin.
Oswalt, though, still got the win thanks in part to a five-run second inning by his offense.
"The pitches I threw to Hanley and Maybin were just poor pitch selection," Oswalt admitted. "Played right into their hands,"
Chase Utley and Placido Polanco combined to drive in three runs in the second frame, and both ended with a pair of hits and two RBI in game two. Carlos Ruiz got the run started with a bases-loaded walk off Anibal Sanchez.
"The worst of it was a lot of walks, a lot of balls, a lot of being behind in the count," Sanchez said after giving up seven runs over four-plus innings. "That's not good for me."
Philadelphia has now won nine of 12 since a four-game losing streak and pulled within a half-game of Atlanta. A victory tonight coupled with another loss by the Braves would put the Phillies, who also lead the Giants by 1 1/2 games for the NL Wild Card spot, back into sole possession of first place for the first time since May 30.
If the Phillies are to do their part, they will need a better effort out of Blanton than the one he gave last time out.
The righty hasn't lost since July 21, having gone 3-0 in eight starts since, and had notched a 2.81 earned run average over his previous five starts before getting tagged for six runs -- four earned -- on 10 hits, three homers and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings versus Colorado on Thursday. However, his offense rallied for a 12-11 win to take Blanton off the hook.
The 29-year-old is 6-6 with a 5.25 ERA in 23 starts this year and has yet to face Florida in 2010. Lifetime versus the Marlins, he is 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA.
The Marlins, who had won four of five prior to Monday's doubleheader, will try to get a fourth straight win tonight out of Chris Volstad, who left his last start on Wednesday versus Washington after five innings.
Volstad allowed six runs in the 16-10 victory, but was ejected after he threw behind the Nationals' Nyjer Morgan, sparking a benches-clearing brawl. Morgan charged the mound after the pitch and connected with a left to Volstad's neck.
"Obviously, he's not coming out there to talk," Volstad said. "I had to defend myself and not to get hurt."
The 23-year-old righty, who earned his career high-tying ninth win to match his total from last year, was fined and suspended for six games but is appealing.
Volstad is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts versus the Phillies this year and was beat up for six runs -- five earned -- over four innings in his last start at Philadelphia on June 8.
He'll look for some help from the offense tonight, especially from Ramirez, seeing as the shortstop is hitting .471 (24-for-51) with five homers and 14 RBI over a 14-game hitting streak.
The Phillies notched a three-game sweep in Miami the last time these clubs met and own an 8-5 edge in the season series.
<< Rays try again to snap slide against Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays try to avoid their fourth straight loss
this evening when they continue a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox
at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox kept their fleeting postseason hopes alive in the ope
<< White Sox send Garcia to mound in Detroit
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Freddy Garcia tries to win his ninth straight decision as
an opposing pitcher at Comerica Park this evening when the Chicago White Sox
and Detroit Tigers continue their four-game series.
In his last nine starts as a vi
<< Sabathia goes for 20th win vs. O's in the Bronx
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CC Sabathia tries to win 20 games for the first time in his
career this evening when the New York Yankees continue their three-game series
with the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium.
Sabathia won his sixth straight sta
<< Silva set to return as Cubs battle Astros
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cubs starter Carlos Silva displayed a lot of heart in
beginning the season 8-0 over his first 11 starts. In an odd twist, that's
exactly what has kept Silva off the mound since August 1.
Silva is scheduled to take the moun
Braves seek to bounce back in second test with Pirates >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta's offense has been mostly shut down during its
current stretch of four losses in five games. That is exactly what starter Tim
Hudson has done to Pittsburgh over the last few years, though.
Hudson looks to extend a
Padres try to string back-to-back wins together against LA >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After finally being able to end a potentially-costly 10-
game skid on Monday, the San Diego Padres will try to start up a winning
streak behind their best pitcher when the National League West leaders resume
a three-game seri
Rockies hope to stay hot versus Reds >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies have put together a couple of strong
Septembers over the past few years. They've been even more successful in
recent meetings with the Cincinnati Reds at Coors Field.
Colorado shoots for an eighth cons
Week One Highlights >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Could the 2010 college football season
gotten off to a better start? It began with some of the nation's top teams
flexing their muscles. There were shootouts, defensive struggles and thrilling
overtime affair
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Offering $12 Million Dollars to whoever fills in the perfect March Madness Bracket. For the fifth year in a row MySportsbook.com is giving March Madness bettors a chance to never have to work another day in their lives. MySportsbook.com has been in business for 12 years and to celebrate this years March Madness they are offering $1 Million Dollars for every year they have been taking college basketball wagers along with every other sports wagering type imaginable.
The MySportsbook.com March Madness contest is simple just Sign-up for the March Madness bracket contest and come back after Selection Sunday to submit your March Madness picks. Then place $20.00 in wagers during each round of the March Madness tournament. Even if your bracket is not perfect you could potentially still win $10,000.00.
There is not an office pool on the planet that can offer this March Madness Grand Prize. Get together with your office, work as a team or keep the $12 Million and do it yourself and win the $12 Million. Also feel free to print out the Printable March Madness Brackets .
Get free 2009 March Madness Betting from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online March Madness betting VISA Mastercard
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting