Lions, Bears try to get leg up in NFC North race

Football Betting Lines

09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Lions begin year No. 2 under head coach Jim Schwartz with high expectations and will waste no time renewing a storied rivalry with the NFC North-rival Chicago Bears this Sunday from Soldier Field.

The Lions, two years removed from an unprecedented 0-16 campaign, will play four of their first six games on the road. That's asking a lot from a young squad that has lost 20 straight as the visitor and hasn't tasted victory outside the Motor City since a 16-7 win at Chicago back on October 28, 2007.

But the vibe in Detroit has been positive the entire offseason, and a sense of hope and purpose has overshadowed the gloom and doom of years past. Detroit already has a franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford and plenty of targets around him to make a difference in 2010. The Lions finished 2-14 in Schwartz's first season a year ago and were able to pluck stud defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh early in April's draft. Suh wasn't impressed with his preseason play, but will learn to be more patient under defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham.

Patience has been a virtue in Detroit over the past several seasons. Having missed the playoffs each year since 2000, the Lions will take it one week at a time since they're not expected to win many games in 2010. Many pundits have them pegged to win four to five games, and that can only motivate the perennial NFC doormats to play the role of overachievers.

The Lions beefed up the defensive front with veteran defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch this offseason, while the offense has star wide receiver Calvin Johnson and rookie running back Jahvid Best to battle with Kevin Smith. It appears Best has turned many heads in preseason, and he'll try to keep it that way now that the real tests begin Sunday afternoon.

There's a different kind of pressure emanating from the Windy City, as Bears head coach Lovie Smith enters the new campaign looking over his shoulder. It could very well be do-or-die for Smith, who has won more than seven games just once in the previous three years (23-25).

Chicago went 7-9 a year ago and hasn't been to the playoffs since losing to Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLI on a rainy night in Miami to conclude the 2006 season. It seems that a black cloud has followed the Bears ever since, giving general manager Jerry Angelo more incentive to bulk up the roster.

Angelo landed the prize of the free agent class in ex-Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers and even added a bonus to the offense in former Vikings running back Chester Taylor. Peppers' consistency on the field has come into question over the past few years, and that could be related to a faltered relationship with his former employers in Carolina. He'll have a myriad of talent around him in players such as Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Tommie Harris to keep him motivated.

Motivation has been in quarterback Jay Cutler's vocabulary ever since he was dealt to the Bears after a dysfunctional relationship with his former head coach Josh McDaniels in Denver. He was picked off an NFL-high 26 times last season to go along with 27 touchdown passes in his first year in the Windy City. Cutler, who finished last season on a promising note by throwing eight touchdown strikes and only one interception in the final two games, will have new offensive coordinator Mike Martz calling the shots.

Martz, known for his offensive prowess in his days as head coach of a pass- happy St. Louis Rams team led by future Hall of Fame signal-caller Kurt Warner, could be next in line to take over the reigns if the powers that be decide it's time to end the Lovie Smith regime.

SERIES HISTORY

Chicago leads the all-time series with Detroit, which dates back to the 1930 season, 91-64-5, including home-and-home sweeps of the Lions in each of the last two years. The Bears were 48-24 home winners when the teams met in Week 4 of 2009, and completed the sweep with a 37-23 victory at Ford Field in Week 17. The Lions swept the 2007 home-and-home, including a 16-7 win at Soldier Field.

Lovie Smith is 8-4 against the Lions as a head coach, while Schwartz is 0-2 against both Smith and Chicago as a head man.

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

Stafford (2,267 passing yards, 13 TD, 20 INT) enters year No. 2 in the NFL with high expectations. Usually a quarterback needs three years to prove his worth in the NFL, but Stafford will try to prove he belongs in only his second. Gifted with a strong arm and high I.Q. for the sport, one of Detroit's team captains hopes to connect right away with his top target in Johnson (67 receptions, 5 TD), who recently mentioned on his blog that he's looking forward to a lot of one-on-one action against the Bears and their Cover 2 defense. Ex-Seahawk Nate Burleson (63 receptions, 3 TD) was acquired as an unrestricted free agent in the offseason to free up Johnson on the other side. With a healthy mix of experience and speed, Stafford will be hard-pressed not to look at Burleson more often if Johnson is double-teamed. Second-year tight end Brandon Pettigrew is hoping to bounce back in his second year after having his rookie campaign cut short by a knee injury on Thanksgiving. Stafford will owe many thanks to the blocking specialist, who led all NFL rookie tight ends with 30 catches and 346 yards in 2009. Best will push Kevin Smith (747 rushing yards, 4 TD) behind an o-line anchored by left tackle Jeff Backus and center Dominic Raiola. The line gave up 24 sacks a year ago.

Peppers (42 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 2 INT) was brought in to wreak havoc on the offense, and the Bears hope there's enough left in the tank after shelling out plenty of cash for the former North Carolina product. Peppers brings a more dangerous presence to the line and will make the pass rush more effective. While Mark Anderson and Israel Idonije battle for playing time opposite Peppers, defensive tackles Harris and Anthony Adams are set at their positions and will be aiming to collapse the pocket on Stafford. The Lions will find it hard to run against the Bears, even though Chicago was 23rd against the rush last year. Defensive coordinator and one-time Lions head coach Rod Marinelli is in his first season and knows that stopping the run is vital to helping the defensive backfield. The Bears' pass defense, which finished 13th overall in 2009, will welcome back middle linebacker Urlacher from a wrist injury that sidelined him for all but one game in 2009. Urlacher's presence alone will strike fear into the Lions offense. His counterpart, Briggs, has been voted to four straight Pro Bowls and will try to make it five after he posted 118 stops, 2 1/2 sacks and an interception last season. Corners Charles Tillman (78 tackles, 2 INT) and Zackary Bowman (66 tackles, 6 INT) are back together, while safeties Daniel Manning (92 tackles, sack, INT) and Chris Harris (60 tackles, 3 INT with Carolina) will make sure Johnson and Burleson stay contained.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

There's a lot of hype around Cutler (3,666 passing yards, 26 TD, 27 INT) this year now that he's under the tutelage of Martz. Whether that makes a difference will be determined against a new-look Detroit defense. Cutler led the league in interceptions and was sacked 35 times in 2009, making his first season with the Monsters of Midway a less enjoyable one. He could have a better experienced this time around, provided an offensive line that will return many familiar faces performs better this season. Defenders around the league are familiar with center Olin Kreutz, guard Roberto Garza and left tackle Chris Williams, who was moved to the left side to protect Cuter and give him more time in the pocket to find his receivers. Unfortunately the plan didn't work out and Cutler never established a go-to receiver last year. Johnny Knox (45 receptions, 5 TD) is trying to be that guy, but will likely share catches with Devin Aromashodu (24 receptions, 4 TD), Devin Hester (57 receptions, 3 TD) and tight end Greg Olsen (60 receptions, 8 TD). Any one of those pass-catchers should have success against Detroit's withered secondary. Running back Matt Forte (929 yards, 4 TD) had a down year from his rookie season and gets to run through Suh and Company, while Taylor gets to showcase his multi-threat talents for the first time in a Bears uniform.

Detroit will try to spoil the regular-season debut of Martz's new offense with Vanden Bosch and Suh applying pressure up front. Last year's lack of push sparked the addition of Vanden Bosch (45 tackles, 3 sacks) and the idea to draft Suh No. 2 overall out of Nebraska. Lions general manager Martin Mayhew is confident Vanden Bosch will be productive even in the twilight of his career, and is very optimistic Suh can make his impression felt immediately. Mayhew also traded for tackle Corey Williams (31 tackles, 4 sacks with the Browns) to possibly play alongside end Cliff Avril (41 tackles, 5.5 sacks), and the added beef up front should improve coordinator Cunningham's 25th rated run defense from a season ago. Detroit's defense was a complete disaster in 2009 and finished last against the pass, total yards allowed and points permitted. The Lions only have one proven linebacker in veteran Julian Peterson, who finished second behind Avril in sacks with 4 1/2. The Lions cut ties with veteran cornerback Dre' Bly and feel confident with Chris Houston and Jonathan Wade starting at the position. Houston was acquired via trade with Atlanta in March, while the team further bolstered its secondary by recently landing cornerback Alphonso Smith via a trade with Denver. Strong safety and ex-Giant C.C. Brown also landed in Detroit this offseason and is expected to start with returning free safety Louis Delmas (94 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). Defensive backs Eric King, Ko Simpson and Dante Wesley were cut in favor of rookies Amari Spievey and Randy Phillips.

FANTASY FOCUS

The fantasy football world will be in full gear Sunday, and there will be plenty of points to go around at Soldier Field. Starting with the visiting Lions, Stafford proved last year that he is a reliable pick for the 2010 campaign with several targets in Johnson, Burleson and Pettigrew. Best and Kevin Smith aren't projected to have good numbers playing against the homestanding Bears, but it's still wise to insert the two into the lineup. The Lions have veteran kicker Jason Hanson, but he's not a good choice until the team can prove it can score and get into field goal range. Cutler is a starter the entire season in fantasy leagues, despite his history of interceptions. He is in a new system with Martz and that could make a big difference. As far as a top-notch wideout, Knox, Hester, Aromashodu and Olsen will battle it out for receptions, leaving may of their owners in limbo. Knox and Olsen, however, are the best picks for Week 1, as is placekicker Robbie Gould. The veteran Bear is one of the most accurate kickers in league history and made 24-of-28 attempts in 2009. Picking Chicago's defense for this week's matchup is a safe choice.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Lions are confident heading into this rivalry after a productive offseason and preseason, and most of the attention will be on Stafford, who is out to prove he is making significant strides from his rookie campaign. With a few new faces and players more accustomed to what Schwartz is selling, it's clear Detroit is ready to rise from the NFC North ashes. Unfortunately the Bears are in the same boat and have more talent on both sides of the ball, making this season opener at home even more important for Cutler and Lovie Smith. Cutler's new offense under Martz will sputter at times, but a defense led by Peppers and a healthy Urlacher will keep Detroit's road woes unbroken and their head coach's job safe.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bears 23, Lions 16

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SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.

Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"

A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."

Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.

In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.

"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."

Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.

But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"

Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.

This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.

Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.

In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.

No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.

And that's all any bettor can ask for.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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