Stars return home to face Williams and Kings

Hockey Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Stars haven't done much to further their playoff chances since the Olympic break, but an upcoming six-game homestand for a team that has been strong this year as the host could do the trick.

Dallas begins that residency tonight at American Airlines Center looking for its first win of the season over the Los Angeles Kings, who will have forward Justin Williams back in the lineup when they seek a fifth straight victory over the Stars.

Having dropped four of five since the break, the Stars find themselves seven points back of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference with 16 games to go. Dallas went 1-2-0 on a recent three-game road trip, which included a big shootout win over Washington on Monday before Wednesday's disappointing 5-3 setback to Buffalo.

The teams combined for six goals in the first period on Wednesday, with the Stars netting three of those tallies. Jamie Benn had a goal and an assist in the frame, while Toby Peterson and Steve Ott also scored. However, the Sabres got the only goal of the second period and then capped the scoring with an empty-net goal in the third.

Dallas fell to 11-17-7 on the road this year as compared to 18-8-5 at home, where the club has won seven of its last 10.

"Things are going to be extremely tough. It's 12 points, and those are huge. It's our season," Ott said of Dallas' upcoming six-game homestand. "If we don't get the ship in the right direction here on our homestand, we may as well call the season."

Marty Turco made 38 saves and Brad Richards had an assist to give him a goal and five assists over a five-game point streak as well as three goals and 10 helpers over his last 11 contests.

Richards has four assists in four games versus the Kings this year while James Neal has three goals in the four meetings. However, the Stars are 0-2-2 versus the Kings this season and they have also lost six of seven and eight of the last 10 meetings.

Los Angeles has also won three straight and five of its last six at Dallas.

The Kings come into this one having lost three of four, but they did earn a point last time out with a 3-2 overtime setback to the Blackhawks. Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar scored less than two minutes apart in the second period, but a turnover by Brad Richardson in overtime set up the Blackhawks' winning goal.

Jonathan Quick made 40 saves for Los Angeles, which is fifth overall in the West, two points back of Phoenix. However, Quick left the team on Thursday after his wife went into labor with the couple's first child and will miss tonight's game. Either backup Erik Ersberg or the recently recalled Jonathan Bernier will start tonight.

Los Angeles will also get Williams back into the lineup much earlier than expected. The 28-year-old has been out since suffering a broken leg on December 26 that was expected to sideline him for up to three months. Williams has eight goals and 16 assists in 33 games and will go right back onto the first line.

"He's going to go right back with [Ryan] Smyth and Kopitar tomorrow, and get him right into the heat of the battle," Kings head coach Terry Murray told his team's Web site on Thursday. "Take advantage of a fresh player. It will be like adding a new guy through a deal, really."

Kopitar has been red-hot as of late, as he has five goals and four assists over a career high-tying eight-game point streak. The forward also has 14 goals and 14 helpers over his last 22 games and six goals in four contests versus the Stars this year.

Alexander Frolov has added a pair of goals and four helpers in the season series. He scored and set up two other goals in a 5-1 victory at Dallas when the clubs last met on March 2.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.